How likely is it that Humanity Will Become Extinct?

  I don't think humanity runs a real risk of extinction for many reasons, but 'Everything is going to be OK!' doesn't sell advertising for the media so they constantly showcase 'Gloom and Doom' stories about how the Earth is going to kill off humanity like a bad cold and similar such *stuff*. And what I am going to state here is uncontestable fact, the hitch is that is is simply rarely published undeniable fact.

  First, let's look at what is meant by extinction. Extinction means that humanity ceases to exist. Completely gone. Eradicated, Poof, gone for ever. That is so unlikely it is ludicrous to even state it. There are three possible outcomes of any of the various scenarios I will go over below, and the first is

  A) it causes problems but nothing majorly awful, like the Bird Flu.
  B) Some events could reduce the global population in a big way, but humanity survives, like what happened with the Black Plague.
  C) A complete extermination of the human race without even one pair of male-female bonding possible. Unlikely in the extreme, in fact so unlikely I would bet a million dollars it will never happen. :D That's a joke for all you folks in Rio Linda.

  Situations in category A happen annually about a dozen times, and the Press makes sure that we hear about every instance of it, every meteor that flies near Earth, every disease that pops up in China and kills someone in Pakistan.
  Situation B is more rare, but it does happen. The Spanish Flu was one such event of recent times, and it did kill millions, BUT HUMANNITY SURVIVED. Of course we still should try to avoid catastrophic events, but that is not what we are discussing here, we are discussing situations in category C and that is a crucial distinction if we love our species and want to keep it around awhile.

 So the critical distinction is between those things B and those things C. Most of the so-called human extinction scenarios are cases of B and not C, thank God. And of those that are truly C type events, most of those are so far away in time, like the danger of an expanding Sun engulfing Earth, that they are not anything we need to worry about today. And even if they were a threat today, most of those kinds of events cannot be stopped by little old Humanity anyway.

  But this obvious analysis doesn't even slow down the Doom and Gloom Brigade, not one second. We are told on a daily basis that we are all doomed unless we do X right now, be that X stopping some new disease, stopping the Earth from getting warmer or whatever is the paid story for the moment in major media.

  Lets look at a few of these scenarios for quick evaluation and then move on to the ones I do consider real risks.
  1. Nuclear war - this will not completely extinguish the flame of humanity, but it would put a serious dent in the population. According to a brilliant man (Herman Khan) who was hired by the DoD decades ago when there were many more missiles and warheads than today, even if every missile was launched and went off, about 10% to 15% of the population would survive a ten year period, to include the effects of radiation sickness and a Nuclear Winter. Humanity would live but we would lose our major media, entertainment, entertainers like JZ, the Kardashians, Bill Maher....nah, I wont go there.
  2. Overpopulation - This is the biggest boogeyman since Malthus came up with it and was proven wrong 250 years ago. See, the thing is the most precious human resource is not gold or food. It is the human mind, and a brilliant man named Julian Simon discovered this concept a few decades ago and he argued that the more people we have the much more likely it is that we will find the answers to inevitable problems.  He called the human mind the 'Ultimate Resource' and it caused a firestorm!
http://www.juliansimon.com/writings/Ultimate_Resource/
http://www.juliansimon.com/reply-critics.html
  Of course all the GDBers came out in force and denounced him and said he was provably wrong. But to clarify the argument and perhaps settle the dispute amicably, Mr Simon proposed to any takers that they make a bet with him. He would bet them that any ten resources that his opponents selected would be cheaper at the end of a ten year period than they cost at the time of the bet. Famously the grand daddy of the DGB Paul Ehrlich himself took the bet...and lost! See the human mind is so good at finding solutions to problems they cannot help but OVER DO it and make the commodity that needs replacement actually cheaper!
http://www.forbes.com/sites/timworstall/2013/01/13/but-why-did-julian-simon-win-the-paul-ehrlich-bet/
  What makes things more expensive is not over population but interfering governments who try to micromanage a thing they fail to understand. The best solution to the biggest danger of overpopulation is to get the government out of the way and let the human mind go to work SOLVING the problems through a free market instead of doing what governments reflexively do; ration, arrest and kill people.
  3. Natural disaster - we human beings are bred to survive this sort of thing, and that is the thing we are most good at, aside from killing each other which is a close second. The proof of the Proverbial Pudding is the Toba Extinction Event, where this huge volcano Toba blew up about 70,000 years ago and caused a Volcanic Winter that lasted about 3 years, three whole years of little or no sunlight at all and temperatures down an average of 15 degrees Centigrade. Temperatures remained cooler for another 1,0000 years after that by about 3 to 5 degrees C.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Toba_catastrophe_theory#Volcanic_winter_and_cooling
  We survived Toba and we can survive Yellowstone or whatever else Mother Nature throws at us too.
  4. Skynet - this theory says that we will make an advanced Artificial Intelligence that will eventually see no more use for us and then begin to exterminate us methodically to protect itself and the planet. This scenario is mostly a libtard wet dream that combines Nature's wrath against humanity via betrayal by our own technology. But it is nonetheless possible, though I would like to say implausible. Along with AI making robots and computers smarter, it will make us smarter too. This technology can be incorporated into the human mind in various ways that would allow us to remember things with computer speed and accuracy also. Advanced AI will be able to give us advice and even take over our responses for brief times like when shooting a rifle or jumping a sudden chasm. And I am totally confident that we will have this widespread in human cyborg advancement well before we put it into androids.

Again, the nay sayers are dealing with only half the facts. The future is bright, just a few possible storm clouds this afternoon but past that the skies are blue forever.